TFFF Estimated Payouts by Country Considering CN3.1 Criteria
Sources of Data
- JRC TMF — Annual deforestation and degradation, available in GEE:
ee.ImageCollection('projects/JRC/TMF/v1_2025/AnnualChanges')
- Hansen GFC — Annual tree cover loss, available in GEE:
ee.Image('UMD/hansen/global_forest_change_2025_v1_13')
- Hansen GFC — Annual tree cover loss due to fire, available in GEE:
users/sashatyu/2001-2025_fire_forest_loss_annual
- Google DeepMind — Natural forests of the world in 2020, available in GEE:
projects/nature-trace/assets/forest_typology/forest_typology_2020_v1_0_collection
- MODIS — Data on fires, available in GEE:
ee.ImageCollection('MODIS/061/MCD64A1')
Issues to Consider
- Dataset geographic boundaries: Hansen GFC data is masked using the Tropical and Subtropical Moist Forest ecoregion. JRC TMF is not masked by ecoregion but maintains the original data’s geographical scope that uses a baseline mask of closed and open natural humid tropical forests.
- Forest types: Since Hansen GFC tree cover dataset does not distinguish types of forest loss, we use a 2020 baseline from Google DeepMind forest typology map, retaining natural forests and excluding planted forests. Annual Hansen tree cover loss is subtracted from 2021 onward. The JRC TMF includes only primary and naturally regenerating forest classes provided by this dataset.
- Forest degradation: All tree cover loss due to fire under Hansen GFC is considered as degraded forests. JRC TMF has no data on fire-driven degradation, so degradation is JRC TMF’s degraded forest class intersected with MODIS burned area at 500 m. The figures produced under this approach are placeholders only. MODIS cannot resolve fire scars at the 30 m scale JRC TMF works at, and the estimates should be replaced once a higher-resolution dataset is available.
- TMF releases: JRC TMF reprocesses deforestation and forest degradation time series at each release. In this analysis, we use the most updated JRC TMF release, including the past year(s). Therefore, updated estimates for the most updated year can affect estimates of previous years as well. For this reason 2024 Revised and 2025 are comparable since both come from the v1_2025 release. The 2024 block comes from the earlier release, so differences are due to reprocessing as well as real change.
- Data comparability: The two datasets (Hansen GFC and JRC TMF) are not comparable and should not be read as two similar estimates. Under Hansen GFC, degradation is fire-driven tree cover loss at 30 m. Under JRC TMF it is degraded forest that is still standing, intersected with a 500 m burned-area product. Differences between the two payout columns reflect differences in the definitions, methods, and assumptions adopted under these two datasets.
- Planted forests: Planted forests are excluded from Hansen GFC data by using the forest typology map from Google DeepMind produced by 2020, which constitutes a fixed mask applied to following years due to the lack of annual updates. Planted forests are not considered in the JRC TMF data since those are a separate class under JRC TMF land cover dataset.
- TFFF criteria: This analysis considers all criteria described in TFFF Concept Note 3.1, except the condition of decreasing deforestation, because it would exclude countries that could experience increasing deforestation rates while staying below the 0.5% threshold. We only consider eligible countries with a deforestation rate below 0.5% averaged over the previous three years.
Scenarios
Alongside the observed figures, the dashboard reports counterfactual scenarios.
They scale the payout year only, and the underlying data and the criteria are unchanged.
There are three scenarios:
- Observed — deforestation and degradation exactly as measured.
- S1 · Half — deforestation and degradation both at 50% of observed.
- S2 · Zero — no deforestation and no degradation in the payout year.
The two sliders set any other proportion. They move together while the
🔗 link is on and can be
switched off to set deforestation and degradation independently. That is often the case since deforestation
and forest degradation trends are not coupled, and the TFFF penalties for the two are not comparable.
Notes on Years
- 2024 — Estimates based on deforestation data by 2024 released in 2025.
- 2024 Revised — Estimates for 2024 revised in updated data series by 2025 released in 2026.
- 2025 — Data estimates by 2025 released in 2026.
Disclaimer
⚠ This analysis has been produced for comparative purposes only between Hansen GFC and JRC TMF datasets.
⚠ The data shown here is only indicative, and it may differ from those reported by the national monitoring systems.
⚠ The actual payments will rely on estimates from the national monitoring systems and won’t be based on global datasets like the ones analyzed here, which are used only for illustrative purposes on potential payouts.
Showing built-in data · two-tab build, candidates 72e5923
These estimates are indicative only · For WWF internal use.
Send comments and suggestions to
pablo.pacheco@wwf.org
This dashboard was generated with assistance from Claude Opus 5, Anthropic, based on our own estimates.